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Principles Of Risk Analysis

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Author by : Charles Yoe
Languange Used : en
Release Date : 2011-09-15
Publisher by : CRC Press

ISBN : 9781439857496

In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know—and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don’t know. Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a straightforward, conceptual manner that is consistent with the risk models of all communities of practice. It answers the questions "what is risk analysis?" and "how do I do this?" Distilling the common principles of the many risk tribes and dialects into serviceable definitions and narratives, the book provides a foundation for the practice of risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty for professionals from all walks of life. In the first part of the book, readers learn the language, models, and concepts of risk analysis and its three component tasks—risk management, assessment, and communication. The second part of the book supplies the tools, techniques, and methodologies to help readers apply the principles. From problem identification and brainstorming to model building and choosing a probability distribution, the author walks readers through the how-to of risk assessment. Addressing the critical task of risk communication, he explains how to present the results of assessments and how to develop effective messages. The book’s simple and straightforward style—based on the author’s decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator—strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. It describes the principles in a manner that empowers readers to begin the practice of risk analysis, to better understand and use the models and practice of their individual fields, and to gain access to the rich and sophisticated professional literature on risk analysis. Additional exercises as well as a free student version of the Palisade Corporation DecisionTools® Suite software and files used in the preparation of this book are available for download....

Principles Of Risk Analysis

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Author by : Charles E. Yoe
Languange Used : en
Release Date : 2019-03
Publisher by :

ISBN : 0429662173

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Primer On Risk Analysis

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Author by : Charles Yoe
Languange Used : en
Release Date : 2016-04-19
Publisher by : CRC Press

ISBN : 9781439857649

In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know-and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don't know. Primer on Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a...

Principles Of Risk Based Decision Making

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Author by : In c. ABS Consulting
Languange Used : en
Release Date : 2002-02
Publisher by : Government Institutes

ISBN : 9780865879089

Principles of Risk-Based Decision Making provides managers with the foundation for creating a proactive organizational culture that systematically incorporates risk into key decision-making processes. Based on methodology adopted by a number of organizations including the federal government, this book examines risk-based decision making as a process for organizing information about the possibility for unwanted outcomes in a simple, practical way that helps decision makers make timely, informed management choices that minimize harmful effects on safety and health, the environment, property loss, or mission success. Citing practical examples, charts, and checklists, the authors break the risk-based decision making process into five key components: establishing the decision structure, performing the risk assessment, managing sufficient risks, monitoring effectiveness of adopted risk controls through impact assessment, and facilitating risk communication. They examine each component in detail and outline available decision analysis and risk assessment tools that aid in each of these risk-based decision making functions. This book also walks readers through eight project management steps—from scoping a risk assessment to evaluating the recommendations—the components of each, and the importance of these steps to the success of a risk assessment. Special features include a table for applying the risk-based decision-making process, a hazard identification guidesheet, an example of human error, an acronym list, and a glossary....

Risk Analysis

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Author by : Jean-Marie Flaus
Languange Used : en
Release Date : 2013-08-05
Publisher by : John Wiley & Sons

ISBN : 9781118789995

An overview of the methods used for risk analysis in a variety of industrial sectors, with a particular focus on the consideration of human aspects, this book provides a definition of all the fundamental notions associated with risks and risk management, as well as clearly placing the discipline of risk analysis within the broader context of risk management processes. The author begins by presenting a certain number of basic concepts, followed by the general principle of risk analysis. He then moves on to examine the ISO31000 standard, which provides a specification for the implementation of a risk management approach. The ability to represent the information we use is crucial, so the representation of knowledge, covering both information concerning the risk occurrence mechanism and details of the system under scrutiny, is also considered. The different analysis methods are then presented, firstly for the identification of risks, then for their analysis in terms of cause and effect, and finally for the implementation of safety measures. Concrete examples are given throughout the book and the methodology and method can be applied to various fields (industry, health, organization, technical systems). Contents Part 1. General Concepts and Principles 1. Introduction. 2. Basic Notions. 3. Principles of Risk Analysis Methods. 4. The Risk Management Process (ISO31000). Part 2. Knowledge Representation 5. Modeling Risk. 6. Measuring the Importance of a Risk. 7. Modeling of Systems for Risk Analysis. Part 3. Risk Analysis Method 8. Preliminary Hazard Analysis. 9. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis. 10. Deviation Analysis Using the HAZOP Method. 11. The Systemic and Organized Risk Analysis Method. 12. Fault Tree Analysis. 13. Event Tree and Bow-Tie Diagram Analysis. 14. Human Reliability Analysis. 15. Barrier Analysis and Layer of Protection Analysis. Part 4. Appendices Appendix 1. Occupational Hazard Checklists. Appendix 2. Causal Tree Analysis. Appendix 3. A Few Reminders on the Theory of Probability. Appendix 4. Useful Notions in Reliability Theory. Appendix 5. Data Sources for Reliability. Appendix 6. A Few Approaches for System Modelling. Appendix 7. CaseStudy: Chemical Process. Appendix 8. XRisk Software. About the Authors Jean-Marie Flaus is Professor at Joseph Fourier University in Grenoble, France....

Risk Analysis Da Guide To Principles And Methods For Analyzing Health And Environmental Risks

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Author by : John J. Cohrssen
Languange Used : en
Release Date : 1989
Publisher by :

ISBN : OCLC:1197937301

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Risk Analysis

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Author by : John J. Cohrssen
Languange Used : en
Release Date : 1999-05
Publisher by : DIANE Publishing

ISBN : 9780788149986

Designed for consumers of risk information, this book offers a balance between the technical and nontechnical literature. The discipline of risk analysis has developed into an organized body of knowledge and methods only within the past 20 years. The passage of federal laws to protect public health and the environment has generated rapid growth in risk analysis in numerous fields. Statements of risk need to be understood to be useful to the public and environmental managers. This guidebook provides a tool for understanding risk analysis. Chapters: overview of risk analysis; hazard identification; risk assessment; and risk communication....

Risk Based Reliability Analysis And Generic Principles For Risk Reduction

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Author by : Michael T. Todinov
Languange Used : en
Release Date : 2006-11-03
Publisher by : Elsevier

ISBN : 9780080467559

This book has been written with the intention to fill two big gaps in the reliability and risk literature: the risk-based reliability analysis as a powerful alternative to the traditional reliability analysis and the generic principles for reducing technical risk. An important theme in the book is the generic principles and techniques for reducing technical risk. These have been classified into three major categories: preventive (reducing the likelihood of failure), protective (reducing the consequences from failure) and dual (reducing both, the likelihood and the consequences from failure). Many of these principles (for example: avoiding clustering of events, deliberately introducing weak links, reducing sensitivity, introducing changes with opposite sign, etc.) are discussed in the reliability literature for the first time. Significant space has been allocated to component reliability. In the last chapter of the book, several applications are discussed of a powerful equation which constitutes the core of a new theory of locally initiated component failure by flaws whose number is a random variable. Offers a shift in the existing paradigm for conducting reliability analyses Covers risk-based reliability analysis and generic principles for reducing risk Provides a new measure of risk based on the distribution of the potential losses from failure as well as the basic principles for risk-based design Incorporates fast algorithms for system reliability analysis and discrete-event simulators Includes the probability of failure of a structure with complex shape expressed with a simple equation...

Risk Analysis

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Author by :
Languange Used : en
Release Date : 1992-10
Publisher by :

ISBN : 0849055725

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Risk Modeling Assessment And Management

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Author by : Yacov Y. Haimes
Languange Used : en
Release Date : 2015-07-17
Publisher by : John Wiley & Sons

ISBN : 9781119017998

Presents systems-based theory, methodology, and applications in risk modeling, assessment, and management This book examines risk analysis, focusing on quantifying risk and constructing probabilities for real-world decision-making, including engineering, design, technology, institutions, organizations, and policy. The author presents fundamental concepts (hierarchical holographic modeling; state space; decision analysis; multi-objective trade-off analysis) as well as advanced material (extreme events and the partitioned multi-objective risk method; multi-objective decision trees; multi-objective risk impact analysis method; guiding principles in risk analysis); avoids higher mathematics whenever possible; and reinforces the material with examples and case studies. The book will be used in systems engineering, enterprise risk management, engineering management, industrial engineering, civil engineering, and operations research. The fourth edition of Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management features: Expanded chapters on systems-based guiding principles for risk modeling, planning, assessment, management, and communication; modeling interdependent and interconnected complex systems of systems with phantom system models; and hierarchical holographic modeling An expanded appendix including a Bayesian analysis for the prediction of chemical carcinogenicity, and the Farmer’s Dilemma formulated and solved using a deterministic linear model Updated case studies including a new case study on sequential Pareto-optimal decisions for emergent complex systems of systems A new companion website with over 200 solved exercises that feature risk analysis theories, methodologies, and application Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, Fourth Edition, is written for both undergraduate and graduate students in systems engineering and systems management courses. The text also serves as a resource for academic, industry, and government professionals in the fields of homeland and cyber security, healthcare, physical infrastructure systems, engineering, business, and more....